针对2015年1月10日&11日写作预测小范围（12题）
2015-01-19 10:03
独立写作：（共12题）
综合写作：（共12题）
独立写作：（共12题）
NO.1
Drivers should pay a certain amount of fees so that they can be permitted to drive out in traffic busy time.
司机们应当支付一定的费用，取得“城市高峰通行许可证”，才能在高峰期间上路。谈谈你的看法。
NO.2
Do you agree or disagree with the following statement: spending a lot of time watching sports on TV and following their favorite team will have negative impact on one’s life.
NO.3
IT IS BETTER TO RELAX BY WATCHING A MOVIE OR READING A BOOK THAN RELAX BY DOING PHYSICAL EXERCISE
看电影看书放松和做运动放松哪个更好
NO.4
Do you agree or disagree with the following statement: parents must have strict rules to help their children to be successful.
NO.5
Some people prefer to buy technological devices as soon as they are available to the public, while other people prefer to wait. Which do you prefer?
NO.6
Do you agree or disagree with the following statement: People who cannot accept criticism will not succeed working in teams.
NO.7
The best way to reduce air pollution is for the government to raise the cost of fuel.
NO.8
Do you agree or disagree with the following statement? Patience is not usually a good thing and we need to take actions at once
NO.9
Do you think it is better for government to spend money on building future housing or preserving historic or traditional buildings and homes?
NO.10
Do you agree or disagree: the universities should spend more money in improving facilities (libraries, computer labs) than hiring famous teachers.
NO.11
The opinions of celebrities, such as entertainers and athletes, are more important to the younger people than they are to the older people.
NO.12
For any business to be successful, it must spend a lot of money on advertising.
综合写作：（共12题）
NO.1
综合写作：
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Topic议题 |
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保持产品热销的方法 |
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Reading |
Listening |
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Thesis总论点 |
3 possible solutions. |
Against. 反对 |
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Sub-point 1 分论点1 |
Launch a new version of products and appeal new customers 在原有产品基础上推出改良产品。例子是soft beverage |
有些老顾客会觉得老的产品是过时的而买新产品，那么总销量就会下降 New versions of products will offend the previous old consumers because they will feel old-fashioned if they still purchase the old versions. The overall sales will decrease. |
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Sub-point2 分论点2 |
Produce a related product 生产配套的产品,举例：卖tractors的公司开始卖 boots |
配套产品如果不好，还会破坏原产品的销量。 People buy the tractors because they represent certain qualities like toughness. But that doesn’t mean the boots have the same quality. The company’s reputation will decline due to the failure of the boots with bad quality. |
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Sub-point3 分论点3 |
Two companies run a partnership 多个厂商之间可以合作，比如冰淇淋的工厂可以和巧克力工厂合作产生巧克力冰淇凌
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合作关系会转为竞争关系 Although the combination products can attract consumers at the beginning, the chocolate company will later consider launching ice cream and become a competitor of its partner. |
NO.2
综合写作
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Topic议题 |
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The decrease of human brain 人脑缩小的原因 |
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Reading |
Listening |
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Thesis总论点 |
3 possible explanations. |
Against. 反对 |
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Sub-point 1 分论点1 |
Climate change. Small body can adjust to hot temperatures, so human brain shrinks in accordance with the body. |
过去温度也在变化，但人脑持续变大，所以人脑大小和气温无关 The size of human brain has nothing to do with temperatures. The brain keeps getting larger and large no matter temperatures go up or fall down. |
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Sub-point2 分论点2 |
Changes of agricultural lifestyle. Smaller brain fits the diet when people start eating grain, with protein and vitamin in it. |
有些地区最近才有生活方式的改变，但人脑变小在全球几乎是同一时间发生，所以不可能。 Lifestyle appears in different times. There was no such trend in Australia and South Africa until recently. Yet the decline of human brain occurs at the same time around the world. So this assumption cannot be true. |
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Sub-point3 分论点3 |
Changes in human muscle mass Human muscles have shrunk, which leads to the decline of muscle-controlling brain.
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肌肉群知识略有缩小，而人脑变小了很多，所以这不可能是主要原因。 The size of human muscle mass only decrease slightly, yet brain size gets much smaller. So this cannot be the major reason. |
NO.3
综合写作：
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Topic议题 |
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住在American southwest的一群人的消失 |
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Reading |
Listening |
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Thesis总论点 |
Caused by drought. |
Against. 反对 |
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Sub-point 1 分论点1 |
Documented global warming. |
Global warming 可能确实减少了降水量，但是在他们聚居地周围发现的树显示当时的降雨量并没有那么少实际上，从对树的分析来看当时的降雨量足够他们种庄稼了。 |
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Sub-point2 分论点2 |
Irrigation system |
这些大坝在他们消失一百年前就有了，而且根据记载，这些大坝时为了抵抗一个长达50年的干旱而建立的，同时也证明了他们的capacity of surviving through drought |
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Sub-point3 分论点3 |
文化发展了人口增长了，干旱使得事物短缺所以他们选择了移居别处 |
人们的消失还有别的因素可以导致比如war。而且确实有迹象表明这些人因为某些问题产生了conflicts，有可能时别的文明drive them away |
NO.4
The downfall of empire 帝国的毁灭
READING
reasons.
1.Rebellion of other states.
2.Shortage of food supply.
3.Bad trade relationships
Against.
反对
1.有中央集权的army，这些states没有正规军队，而且周边的defensive wall早就被毁了。
2.当时已经有irrigation system，可以从远处调水，而且储存的食物也足够度过。
3.帝国和周边states的不平等贸易，即使是这样，但是帝国和东边的比如Idian等新的partner合作，可以弥补损失的部分
NO.5
The plan of preserving forests
For.
支持
1.Protect agriculture from damage.
2.Payment for people living in the forest.
3.Biodiversity.
Against.
反对
1人口增加，农民需要更多的食品，如果不能得到，会使用新的farm tech，这种tech更伤害环境比deforest伤害更多。
2钱是会给forest owner，但是owner通常是政府，不是people who live in the forests,政府将不会把这笔钱给这些人，而是花在other objects
3花钱都是人工种植的森林plantation forests这些都是for commercial purposes，所以物种不多，达不到promote biodiversity的目的
NO.6
The TLP phenomenon
Three hypotheses.
1.并非真实的现象，而是observational error
2.光来自meteor striking
3.月球表面有发光的岩石
Against.
反对
1.如果instrument design引起的问题，那么这个现象应该randomly发生，但是所有被spot的现象出现在月球表面的两个location
2.Meteor striking的光只能维持一秒钟，但是TLP维持了20分钟。虽然流星雨meteor showers能维持很久，但是当TLP被发现的时候月球上并没有流星雨
3.岩石虽然能发光，但是他们的光线很弱，研究人员一般再晚上观察，本身不发光的月球会反射的sunlight比rock的光要更明亮，所以人们观察不到。就好像再power light面前看不到candle的光。"
NO.7
综合写作：
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Topic议题 |
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Primary care doctors 美国的初级医护人员 |
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Reading |
Listening |
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Thesis总论点 |
Primary care doctors show a tendency of decline. 美国的初级医护人员在减少 |
No 非 |
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Sub-point 1 分论点1 |
High tuition fees 医护人员的学费很高。 |
Financial aid like scholarship helps them pay the loan. 有经济辅助，如奖学金，帮助医护人员偿还贷款。 |
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Sub-point2 分论点2 |
Little chance for internship 医护人员没有实习机会。 |
It may be true for some hospitals, but for other types, they actually provide more opportunities. There will be as many as 1000 vacancies if young doctors could move after three years. 有些医院机会少，但有些医院机会多。三年后迁移然后会有更多的机会。 |
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Sub-point3 分论点3 |
They are under a huge amount of pressure. 医护人员压力很大。 |
Government will help ease their pressure and provide more vacations. 政府可以出台法令给医护人员减压而且提供更多的休息。 |
NO.8
版本一：
作阅读database medical record要比paper base好1省钱2减小错误发生3 促进医学研究。
听力不同意1 医生依然用纸作为应急使用2医生在examine patient 的时候也会用纸，这样由于poor handwriting导致的错误依然会出现3病人数据的使用受法律限制，只有所有者同意才能使用，所以依然麻烦
版本二：
文章说用电子记录医学record好因为1省钱（减少storage和运输费用）2减少错误3 提供research data。
speaker反驳1医生即使有电子记录仍然会留一份paper record 2 医生喜欢用paper记录，然后让别的人把记录输入进电脑， 这样更容易出错。3 医学病历不可以随便用，有法律保护的
2：the rules that the whole societies today expect to young people to follow and obey are too strict.
NO.9
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Topic议题 |
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Signing bonuses 签约福利 |
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Reading |
Listening |
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Thesis总论点 |
Help schools in large cities hire enough teachers. 帮助大城市的学校招聘更多老师。 |
Against. 反对 |
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Sub-point 1 分论点1 |
提高老师的薪水，更多人愿意来做老师 Raise income
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老师并不总是不在意薪水，根据调查，他们更在乎其他因素，如library，lab的条件 |
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Sub-point2 分论点2 |
吸引其他领域的人才 Attract talents in industry and business
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没有教学背景的人需要接受培训， 而且还要持续现有工作，这本身就会耗费时间，并且给这个人带来更大压力 |
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Sub-point3 分论点3 |
避免辞职 Avoid resignation caused by staffing problems
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如果因为协议而勉强教学的老师也不会受到学生喜爱，因为学生不喜欢带着情绪上课的老师。 |
NO.10
讲用corn之类的植物做的新型塑料，biopolymers,说易于降解，节能环保，而且质量也不会下降．然而讲座逐条批驳完全给否了．第一，professor说降解只发生在特定条件下，而且很难meet所有的条件：要暖，至少保持一周，没有heat和moisture的话，要用和traditional plastic一样长的时间才能降解．第二，为了做biopolymers，要先种玉米等原料，而农业恰恰极为耗能而且污染环境（因为农民用农药等化学物质）．第三，质量上会inferior,比如要储存ＣＤ等东西，要durable，而biopolymers在heat和moisture下会降解，显然不行．
版本二：
Reading里说Biopolymer 的袋子比一般的塑料袋好, 不产生垃圾，廉价、环保、容易保存食物；
Lecture里说不廉价，不环保，因为这种东西用农作物制成，所以费钱，而且农作物生长要用化肥和杀虫剂，所以污染，不环保。另外还说到，这种东西不durable, 容易拉坏，不方便。
NO.11
pyramids of Egypt
阅读里说：金字塔是concrete做成的，原因 ①做花瓶啊之类的，中空而neck细的容器，应该就是用模子然后灌concrete做成的；②金字塔材料的sample里有tiny bubbles，在天然石头里没有，只有concrete有；③金字塔材料的moisture湿度高，在炎热干燥的埃及是不可能的。
听力里反对：①花瓶之类的，可能是先把两块石头分别雕刻成一半花瓶，然后glue together；②sample确实是concrete，但可能是后来修缮金字塔时才使用的材料，they may not be used by original builders；③湿度高是因为有大批游客，他们的呼吸使得水分trapped into the pyramids.
NO.12
主要内容关于讨论一种large bird(已不存在)之类called mamo，关于mamo是否曾经survive in New Zealand展开讨论
阅读部分认为存在，三点原因：first, a girl see there maybe the marks on the sand,然后家人和部分专家确信that is the food size of mamo；
In addition, 举例当地marks on bone 被发现,有依据推测骨头上的痕迹may证明是被blade**的,而blade是在那个时期出现的(貌似好像是类似于对其灭绝原因的推测)
最后是在考古学的发掘物中,例如旧时的pottery一类,发现有mamo的feature之类,证明古人类对它的记录
听力部分教授逐一反驳,对应阅读的三点：首先是所谓的food size on the sand,教授认为那也许只是small size,但是由于沙子容易被风之类的吹变形等等原因,从而enlarge the size,因此那并不是mamo的脚印；
其次是骨头上的痕迹,教授认为那个也许是人类后天reshape所导致的,并不能说明blade出现导致mamo的灭绝；
Last,教授认为古陶瓷器具上面关于mamo的形象maybe describe by person to person from the family(类似于人类文化的传承吧)
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