鱼和熊掌兼顾的投资智慧

　　Even the experts can't agree whether rising or falling prices lie in our future.

　　即便是专家也对物价到底是涨还是跌的看法不一。

　　That leaves investors in a quandary how to construct a portfolio at a time of great uncertainty? A wrong bet could be devastating. If your portfolio is built for deflation, for example, your assets will slump if the country instead experiences a bout of inflation.

　　这就给投资者出了一个难题目在经济前景如此不明朗的情况下，该如何构建自己的投资组合呢?下错了注，受到的打击将是致命的。比如，你的组合是基于对通货紧缩的预期，那么假使发生了通货膨胀，你的资产便会大幅缩水。

　　The answer is to prepare for the economic scenario you think is most likely, and then build in some insurance in case you are wrong.

　　最佳方案就是，按你认为最有可能出现的经济状况来进行投资，同时采取一定的保险措施，以防止出现失误。

　　"If you want to win the war," says Rich Rosso, a financial consultant at Charles Schwab, "you have to own both sides of the fight to some degree."

　　嘉信理财的金融咨询师里奇·罗索说，“要想赢得战争的胜利，作战双方你都得投点资。”

　　Such an approach necessarily means some investments will suffer no matter how the economy turns.

　　采取这种投资方式的话，不管经济形势如何，你都会有部分资产受损。

　　Here are three portfolios, each with built-in insurance. The first will do best in an inflationary period but won't be crushed if deflation instead rules the day. The second is for investors who fear deflation, but want some protection against potential inflation. And the third is aimed at investors who believe the economy will muddle through without severe inflation or deflation.

　　下面的三种投资组合均考虑了内在的保险要素。第一种组合在通货膨胀时期表现最佳，遭遇通货紧缩时却也不致崩盘。第二种适于那些预期通货紧缩，同时也希望能够应对通货膨胀的投资者。第三种针对的则是那些认为经济发展温和，既不会有严重的通货膨胀也不会有严重通货紧缩的投资者。

　　Inflation

　　通货膨胀型投资

　　If you believe all the government spending in response to the financial crisis will ultimately beget inflation, you want a portfolio that thrives in a period of surging prices.

　　如果你认为政府应对经济危机的——应开销最终会导致通货膨胀，那么你肯定希望自己的投资组合在物价上涨时能有良好表现。

　　Commodities are the primary play, because everything from oil and corn to copper and pork bellies should gain. Plus, commodities-particularly gold-hedge against the dollar, offering a 2-for-1 benefit if a weak dollar accompanies inflation, as some expect.

　　商品期货可以是投资的重头，因为到时候原油、粮食、铜、猪肉的价格都会上涨。而且，大宗商品——尤其是黄金，可对冲美元贬值。有人预计，在美元疲软兼通胀的形势下，投资黄金可能会带来双倍的收益。

　　Insurance Component; Long-term Treasury bonds and municipal bonds.

　　保险元素：长期国债和市政债券

　　Both will likely soar in value amid deflation because their long period of fixed payments would bean attractive source of income as prices for goods and services broadly fall, would like paychecks shrink. And Treasury papers, in particular, would likely become a haven for foreign investors, further pushing up their price.

　　这两种债券在通货紧缩时期价格都会攀升，因为在商品和服务大幅降价、薪酬缩水的情况下，这两种债券的长期固定收益会是一笔可观的收入。尤其是美国国债，到时会很受国外投资者的青睐，从而价格会受到进一步地推动。

　　Deflation

　　通货紧缩型投资

　　Portfolio preparation is easier for deflationists. Put a chunk of money into long-term Treasury bonds and much of the rest into cash and some municipal bonds.

　　通货紧缩论者要构建投资组合相对更为容易可将大部分钱购置长期美国国债，剩余的钱，一部分存现，一部分购入市政债券。

　　If broad-based deflation materializes, long-term Treasury papers are likely to surge. The bonds' fixed-income stream, meanwhile, would be worth increasingly more relative to falling consumer prices.

　　如果大范围通货紧缩成为现实，长期国债便极有可能会升值。而与此同时，债券的固定收益同消费价格下跌的关联日益密切。

　　Round out your deflation portfolio with a big slug of cash. Though it won't generate much of a return in a low-rate, deflationary environment, cash in the bank will gain value as prices fall.

　　如果你对经济的预期是通货紧缩，那么就在你的投资组合中保留大量的现金吧。把现金存在银行，在低利率、通货紧缩的环境下产生不了大的收益，不过随着物价的下跌，存在银行里的现金实际上是升值的。

　　Insurance Component: Commodities react most drastically to surprise inflation, so they should be part of your insurance. If inflation arises, companies such Coca-Cola, tobacco giant Altria, and toothpaste maker Colgate-Palmolive will have some pricing power.

　　保险无素：假使通胀不期而至，大宗商品期货会有最大的收益，所以应当将其作为一项保险撞施。如果通胀爆发，可囚可乐公司、烟草巨头奥驰亚集团、牙膏生产商高露洁棕榄等企业便有了定价权。

　　Goldilocks Economy

　　金发女孩经济型

　　Maybe, just, maybe, world bankers will get this right. and the economy will experience neither severe inflation nor severe deflation.

　　可能，仅仅是可能一一全世界的银行家都很了解这一点——经济既没有严重的通货膨胀也没有严重的通货紧缩。

　　"We think most likely the central banks of the World will get this close enough to right we will settle in close to a relatively benign inflation rate of between 1.5% and 2.5%," says Aaron Gurwitz, head of global investment strategy at Barclays Wealth.

　　巴克莱全球投资策略主管亚伦·格威茨说，“我们认为，各国央行最终极有可能将通胀率保持在相对温和的水平，即介于1.5%至2.5%之间。”

　　"In such a 'Goldilocks' scenario--where the economy is neither too hot nor too cold—risky assets would do best, so equities and bonds with some equity characteristics should receive the emphasis," says Scott Wolle, portfolio manager of the AIM Balanced-Risk Allocation Fund.

　　AIM Balanced-Risk Allocation基金投资组合经理斯科特·沃勒说：“在‘金发女孩’经济时期一一经济既不过热也不过冷，风险资产会有最好的表现，股票和带有股票性质的债券应当是关注的重点。”

　　For the bond component, pick a fund such as the Fidelity Total Bond fund that largely owns high-grade, intermediate-term corporate bonds and mortgages, along with government and and agency debt.

　　债券部分可以选择一支基金，比如富达债券总指数基金，该基金持有高等级中期企业债券、抵押贷款及政府和政府机构债务。

　　Insurance Component: Just in case the Goldilocks scenario is wrong , you will need insurance against either inflation or deflation. Pick up inflation protection through a commodity ETF, and deflation protection with long-term Treasury papers. Cash also is OK in either situation.

　　保险元素·假设关于金发女孩经济的预期是错误的，那么你需要抵御通货膨胀和通货紧缩的双重凤险。可以购入大宗商品交易所买卖基金来应对通货膨胀、长期国债来应对通货紧缩。现金则是可以同时应对两种情况的法宝。

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（实习编辑：高奕飞）