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新东方网为大家带来2020托福听力练习：对赌博的好奇心理使科学受益（下载），希望对大家有所帮助!更多内容请随时关注新东方网!
“It's not just gamblers using science.
In many cases, science has benefited enormously from people studying the house.”
Mathematician Adam Kucharski.
He's the author of the new book The Perfect Bet:How Science and Math Are Taking the Luck Out of Gambling.
“Back in the Renaissance, actually, probability theory was developed to study these games.
I mean, can you imagine having bets where it's not actually clear what a fair game is?”
For example, in the 17th century the question came up, do you have the same chance of throwing a six by rolling one dice four times or of throwing two sixes by rolling two dice 24 times?
“That had been around awhile, those kinds of bets and those kinds of questions, and that was Fermat and Pascal who developed a lot of this theory.
And one of the crucial things was this concept of an expected value:if you play a game repeatedly what do you expect to win on average?
And until you have that kind of theory in place it's very hard to actually compare two bets directly and work out which one is more preferable.”
Pascal figured out that your chances of throwing one six in four rolls of a die was slightly more than 50 percent.
But your odds of two sixes in 24 throws of two dice was slightly less than 50 percent.
“And a lot of this theory from probability to statistics and actually more recently things like game theory and chaos theory originated with studying games of chance, so I think science actually has benefitted a lot from people's curiosity about gambling.”
My full interview with Adam Kucharski about his book The Perfect Bet is at our Web site as a Science Talk podcast.
翻译见下页
“不仅是赌徒会利用科学。
在许多情况下，科学很大程度上受益于研究赌博游戏的人们。”
数学家亚当·卡尔斯基得出这样的结论。
好奇心理.jpg
卡尔斯基是新书《完美下注:科学和数学如何去除赌博中的运气》的作者。
早在文艺复兴时期，就已经有研究这些赌博游戏的概率论。
我的意思是，你能想象在自己连是否公平都不清楚时就进行下注吗?
比如17世纪就有这样的一个问题，扔一枚骰子4次得到一个6同扔两枚骰子24次得到两个6的概率一样吗?
这个问题已经存在许久，同样还有这样那样的赌注及种种其它的问题，因此费马和帕斯卡发展出这方面的理论。
而其中至关重要的是期望值的概念：
如果你反复玩一个游戏，你对平均胜率有何期望?
而直到你掌握了这种理论，就会知道直接比较前文提及的两种赌注很难得出哪一种方式更可取。
帕斯卡尔发现扔一枚骰子4次得到6的几率略大于50%。
但另一种情况的几率却略低于50%。
而实际上从这种概率论到统计学，再到最近的博弈理论及混沌理论都是来源于研究赌博游戏的获胜几率，因此我认为科学从人们对赌博所产生的好奇心理中受益。”
如需获取卡尔斯基的全部访问及其新书的相关内容，请访问科学美国人官网。
1.benefit from 从中受益
例句:A stammering child can benefit from speech therapy.
口吃的孩子可以从言语矫治中获益。
2.probability theory 概率论
例句:Emphasizes history of probability theory and computational approaches toprobabilistic and causal inference.
重点介绍概率理论的历史，以及盖然论和因果推理的计算方法。
3.come up 上来;发生
例句:Her cat came up and rubbed itself against their legs.
她的猫跑上前来，在他们腿上蹭来蹭去。
4.expect to 期望
例句:You cannot expect to like all the people you will work with.
不要指望你会喜欢所有和你共事的人。
以上是新东方网为大家带来的2020托福听力练习：对赌博的好奇心理使科学受益（下载），希望认真积极的备考，早日取得优异的成绩。更多内容请随时关注新东方网!
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